Assessing Transition to Stability, Fiscal Sustainability and Provision of Peace Dividend in South Sudan

The study argues that classic definition of a fragile state fits the situation in South Sudan because this country has been unable, since independence, to provide public and social services in sufficient quality, scope and reach. This has made it difficult to provide peace dividend as well as ensuring fiscal sustainability. The study assesses public perceptions on the state of fragility. Its causes and how to accelerate transition to stability. It finds that while 40 percent of the survey respondents blamed parliament for failing to deliver peace dividend and ensure fiscal sustainability, 48 percent of respondents believe that all stakeholders are responsible for accelerating transition from fragility.

Overview of the macroeconomic situation in general and the fiscal position of the government in particular reveals that the civil conflict triggered a widening fiscal deficit and macroeconomic instability. In order to transit from fragility to stability, the country should embark on foremost restoring peace and security, maintain fiscal discipline in basic PFM functions, inducing private agents to repatriate assets home, restore communal trust, enhance management of public resources, and strengthen political governance. Survey results and experience from other countries indicate that achieving durable peace and/or accelerating South Sudan out of fragility is not achieved by single institutions and individuals but by a collective responsibility that calls for broad participation of civil society organizations, political parties, academia, governments, and the regional and international community.